What Are Prediction Markets?
How real-money trading is changing the way we forecast elections
Prediction markets are platforms where people buy and sell shares based on the outcome of real-world events — like who will win the Georgia Governor's race or which party will control the U.S. Senate. The price of each share reflects the crowd's best estimate of how likely that outcome is to happen.
If a share in "Keisha Lance Bottoms wins the Georgia Governor's race" is trading at 53 cents, the market is saying there's roughly a 53% chance they win. That number updates in real time as new information — polls, endorsements, debates, fundraising reports — changes how people think about the race.
Unlike polls, which capture what voters say they'll do, prediction markets capture what people are willing to bet real money on. That financial incentive tends to produce sharper, faster, and often more accurate forecasts.
How Do Prediction Markets Work?
The mechanics are straightforward:
Why Are Prediction Markets Better Than Polls?
Polls ask people what they plan to do. A pollster calls 800 likely voters and asks who they'll vote for. The result is a snapshot — one moment in time, subject to sampling bias, question wording, and whether people are being honest.
Prediction markets ask people to put money where their mouth is. When your own money is on the line, you think harder. You don't just go with your gut — you weigh the polls, the fundraising numbers, the endorsements, the ground game, and anything else that might matter. The market price reflects all of that information, updated continuously.
Research has shown that prediction markets often outperform polls, particularly as Election Day approaches. During the 2024 presidential election, major prediction platforms processed billions of dollars in trades and produced probability estimates that tracked closely with actual results.
The odds you see on ElectionsGA come directly from these markets — giving you a real-time, money-weighted view of where every Georgia race stands.
What Can You Trade On?
Election prediction markets cover a wide range of political outcomes:
- Who will win a specific race — Governor, Senate, House, Attorney General, and more
- Which party will control Congress — Senate and House majority markets
- Primary elections — Who will win the Republican or Democratic nomination
- Margin of victory — Will the winner get more than 55% of the vote?
- Voter turnout — Will turnout exceed a certain threshold?
- Presidential races — 2028 markets are already active
Every race you see on ElectionsGA tracks live prediction market data, so you're always seeing the market's latest assessment of where things stand.
How to Get Started
Understanding the Odds on ElectionsGA
Every race page on ElectionsGA displays head-to-head odds powered by prediction market data. Here's how to read them:
- 53% D / 47% R means the market gives the Democratic candidate a 53% chance of winning and the Republican a 47% chance
- These numbers update throughout the day as traders react to news, polls, and campaign developments
- The odds reflect the consensus view of thousands of traders putting real money behind their predictions
- When odds shift suddenly, it usually means something significant happened — a new poll, an endorsement, a debate performance, or breaking news
The data comes from PredictionEdge, which aggregates odds from major regulated prediction market platforms.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is prediction market trading legal?
Yes. In the United States, several platforms operate under CFTC regulation as designated contract markets. This gives them the same legal standing as futures exchanges.
How much money do I need to start?
Most platforms let you start with as little as $1-$5 per trade. You don't need a large bankroll to participate.
Can I lose money?
Yes. If the outcome you bet on doesn't happen, your shares settle at $0. Only trade what you can afford to lose.
Are prediction markets accurate?
Research consistently shows that prediction markets produce forecasts that are competitive with or better than expert predictions and polling averages, especially close to an event.
How are prediction markets different from sports betting?
Prediction markets function like a stock exchange — prices are set by traders, not by a bookmaker. You can buy and sell positions at any time, and the price reflects real-time probability, not fixed odds set by a house.
Where does ElectionsGA get its odds data?
Our data comes from PredictionEdge, which aggregates odds from regulated prediction market platforms including Kalshi.
