Political Editor Savannah Witt
Published May 11, 2026
On May 10, former University of Georgia football coach Derek Dooley saw his odds surge on Polymarket and Kalshi in the Republican primary for Georgia's U.S. Senate seat. The jump lasted only hours before reversing, creating short-term whiplash for traders tracking the May 19 contest. The episode shows how prediction markets can magnify minor movements in a race where most voters remain undecided.
Three Candidates Define the GOP Field
Dooley enters the primary with an endorsement from Gov. Brian Kemp and stands alongside U.S. Reps. Mike Collins and Buddy Carter as the main contenders. Collins currently leads recent surveys, while Dooley sits in second and Carter trails. The three-way split leaves room for late shifts before voters decide on May 19.
Polling Snapshot Shows Collins Ahead
Recent surveys place Collins in front, though large numbers of voters have not committed. One poll from Quantus Insights captured the current spread.
| Pollster | Collins | Dooley | Carter |
|---|
| Quantus Insights | 33% | 23% | 14% |
Those figures come from RealClearPolitics polling data. The undecided bloc exceeds 30 percent in most surveys, giving any candidate room to gain ground in the final week.
Prediction Markets Still Favor Democrats in November
Separate contracts on the general election show stronger confidence in a Democratic hold. As of May 11, Kalshi priced Democrats at 82 percent to win the seat while Polymarket set the figure at 85 percent, with incumbent Jon Ossoff as the clear favorite. These numbers reflect the broader challenge any Republican nominee will face in a state that has trended competitive in recent cycles.
Markets React Fast Then Correct
The May 10 spike for Dooley appeared tied to his Kemp endorsement and name recognition from his coaching days. Traders bought contracts quickly, then sold as volume returned to normal levels. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported the brief rally and its reversal within the same day. Such volatility often occurs when outside money or endorsements surface close to a primary date.
Primary Day Looms
Ballots open May 19 across Georgia. A runoff would follow on June 16 if no candidate reaches a majority. Collins holds the polling edge, Dooley carries the governor's backing, and Carter remains in the mix. The betting markets' quick correction suggests traders see no decisive break yet in the three-candidate contest.
