30% of Georgia GOP Primary Voters Are Still Undecided With

Rick Jackson and Burt Jones have spent more than $100 million combined flooding Georgia airwaves, and roughly 3 in 10 Republican primary voters still haven't made up their minds. With early voting already underway and the May 19 primary two weeks out, both the GOP and Democratic governor's races are on a credible path to a June 16 runoff — because neither front-runner is close to the 50% threshold required to win outright.

The Republican Race: $100 Million, No Daylight

The latest AJC poll, conducted by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs and surveying 1,000 likely GOP primary voters (MOE ±3.1%), puts Jackson at 27.2% and Jones at 24.8% — a statistical tie. A separate InsiderAdvantage survey taken April 22-23 showed Jackson at 32% and Jones at 25%, with Brad Raffensperger at 11% and Chris Carr at 6%. Both polls agree on one thing: somewhere between 23% and 30% of likely Republican primary voters have not committed to anyone.

That number has been stubbornly high all cycle. A February poll of 1,337 likely voters found 37% of Republican respondents still undecided — roughly 4 in 10, three months before the primary. The undecided share has compressed but not collapsed, even as the ad spending hit nine figures.

The eight-candidate field fragments the non-undecided vote enough that a runoff is a realistic outcome even if the undecideds break cleanly for one candidate. Ballotpedia has flagged the Republican primary as a battleground, and the math explains why: Jackson and Jones together account for barely half the electorate in most surveys, with Raffensperger and Carr holding meaningful shares.

The Trump Card Jones Is Playing — and Its Limits

President Trump endorsed Jones in August 2025, months before Jackson entered the race in February 2026. With Trump carrying an 86% approval rating among likely Georgia GOP primary voters, both campaigns have leaned into Trump imagery in their ads. The endorsement has not translated into a durable polling lead for Jones — Jackson's late entry and self-funded ad barrage erased whatever early advantage the Trump backing provided.

Jackson also took the fight off the airwaves and into federal court, filing a lawsuit against Jones over a fundraising advantage Jones holds under Georgia's 2021 campaign finance law. That law allows the lieutenant governor to raise unlimited funds through a leadership committee; other candidates, including the attorney general, cannot. Jackson's lawsuit argues the arrangement is unconstitutional. The legal fight hasn't resolved, but it has kept the money disparity in the news.

Democrats: Bottoms Leads, But the Math Isn't There Yet

On the Democratic side, former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms leads a seven-candidate field that includes Michael Thurmond, Jason Esteves, Geoff Duncan, Derrick Jackson, Olu Brown, and Amanda Duffy. The latest AJC poll shows Bottoms at 39%, Thurmond at 10%, Esteves at 8%, and Duncan at 7%, with about one-third of voters still undecided. A Public Policy Polling survey put the undecided share at 36%, with Bottoms at 38%. An earlier AJC poll had both Bottoms and undecideds at 40% each.

Bottoms, who entered the race in May 2025, has led every public survey. But 39% is not 50%, and in a seven-candidate race with a third of the electorate uncommitted, her rivals are openly calculating that the undecideds break unevenly enough to force a June runoff. The AJC noted that "poll after poll finds a big chunk of voters are undecided" — a pattern that has held across pollsters and months.

What the Undecided Numbers Actually Mean for November

Georgia has voted Republican in every governor's race since 2002. Brian Kemp won re-election in 2022 by 7.5 points over Stacey Abrams, and he is term-limited, leaving the seat open for the first time in eight years. Race to the WH forecasters consider Georgia among the most viable Democratic targets for a gubernatorial flip in 2026 precisely because of that vacancy.

A runoff on either or both sides would push the general election matchup into mid-June, compressing the general campaign calendar. It would also drain resources from whichever candidate survives a second race. The candidate who avoids a runoff — if any does — enters the fall with a financial and organizational advantage over whoever had to fight through June.

Early in-person voting runs through May 15, which means ballots are being cast right now while a substantial share of the electorate is still deciding. The primary is May 19. If neither party produces a majority winner, both runoffs land on June 16.